When a major investor such as Heimstaden announces that it will be selling out in the Netherlands, it immediately makes the news due to the relatively large residential portfolio of the Swedish investor. Silently, however, a much greater destruction is taking place among the members of Vastgoed Belang. ‘The already limited private rental market will be reduced to negligible size.’
At the beginning of October, Heimstaden announced that it wanted to sell off 2,500 of its approximately 13,500 homes in the next two years: the homes will probably be sold as owner-occupied homes. The Swedish investor takes into account a complete sale of its stock in the Netherlands, but at the same time a situation in which it returns as an investor to the Dutch housing market. The reason for the retreat lies partly in the general economic conditions, including rising interest rates, but also in the increasing regulatory pressure on the rental market, which puts pressure on income and returns.
Differing reactions
The move caused a lot of commotion and the most diverse reactions, from local politicians who fear a sell-off of affordable homes to Minister De Jonge who welcomes the fact that more affordable homes are coming onto the market.
Although these are major expansion projects – the Canadian Eres previously announced a similar step – Heimstaden represents a relatively small share of the total housing market. Like Eres, Heimstaden is a member of IVBN, the association of institutional real estate investors. IVBN indicates that its members account for 135,000 rental properties, which are mainly located in the Randstad, North Brabant and Gelderland.
Gradual with mutation
The market of smaller private landlords is considerably larger. Many of these investors, from sole traders who own a few homes as pension facilities to companies with a large portfolio, are members of Vastgoed Belang. The association chaired by Jack de Vries represents a market of more than 1 million homes, the largest housing provider in the Netherlands after housing associations.
At Vastgoed Belang they are also concerned about the impending decline in the supply of rental properties. “Our support base is extremely diverse, with many small investors,” says a spokesperson. ‘That is why it is a challenge to keep accurate figures. However, we recently conducted a member poll, which showed that more than 90% of our members feel compelled to divest at least part of their portfolio. This will not happen all at once, but gradually through mutation.’
Restructuring in 10 years
Vastgoed Belang expects that the restructuring will take place over the course of 10 years. ‘It is difficult to determine the exact numbers. But if we take our portfolio of 1 million homes and you take 90% of that, a significant part of which is affected by the mid-rental regulation and all are affected by the tax plans, then we can conclude that the already limited private rental market will become negligible. be returned. A worrying development for tenants who are not eligible for social housing and cannot (yet) buy. Fortunately, more and more parties are realizing this.’